16 Sep 2025 money
My YouTube feed is filled with videos about how to beat the market. Lots of people trying lots of things to make a bit more money than the next guy.
It reminds of the search for a perpetual motion machine. Lots of interesting ideas, none of them actually work, and somehow no one realizes that they’re attempting to violate the laws of physics. The lure of returns is simply too tempting to think clearly.
Yes, there are inefficiencies. Yes, people get rewarded for finding them. But those people aren’t you and me. They’re big companies that spend ungodly amounts of money to be the best at what they do. They employ brilliant people to build incredibly complicated systems to compete with other big companies. There is no value left over for you or I to extract.
For the average person, winning in the market is no different than winning at the casino; you had a good day, but it wasn’t because you studied long enough and hard enough to beat the house. There is no edge to be had; it’s all luck. The only way to win is to refuse to play—to stop trying to beat the market.
I don’t fault people for playing. The whole thing is counterintuitive and confirmation bias is one hell of a drug. But I’m growing weary with the total imbalance of “timing the market” versus “time in the market” content. We need more channels like Ben Felix, The Plain Bagel, and Personal Finance Club—or perhaps they exist and I just need to find them.